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Grad Manaus kojeg okružuje prašuma i u kojem živi 2 milijuna stanovnika, prvi je u Brazilu bio pogođen pandemijom Covida-19. Virus se tamo brzo širio i procijenjeno je kako je do listopada prošle godine bilo zaraženo 76 posto stanovništva, što je veći broj od teorijskog praga za imunitet krda – piše The Guardian.

Manaus tada je postao simbol neobuzdanog, smrtonosnog divljanja zaraze. Svakodnevno su imali stotine mrtvih, toliko da više nije bilo mjesta u bolničkim hladnjačama, a svijet su slali fotografije s beskonačnim nizovima tek iskopanih grobova.

U siječnju 2021. godine Manaus je zadesio novi val pandemije i zdravstveni sustav je ponovno preopterećen. Ponovo su pred bolnicama hladnjače za mrtva tijela, u bolnicama se više ljudi bori za život nego u ožujku i travnju - prenosi njemački Spiegel.

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AFP
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Slučaj Manausa otvaranja pitanja: Je li imunitet jenjava ili je virus toliko mutirao da zaobilazi stečeni imunitet? Je li se u Manausu sada širi znatno zarazniji soj virusa Covid-19?

Jutarnji list piše da su znanstvenici iz Brazila, Engleske i SAD-a analizirali kako je moguće da ni s tako velikim brojem zaraženih Manausu nije pomogao imunitet krda. Zaključke su objavili u znanstvenom časopisu Lancet.

1. Nije postignut imunitet krda

Tvrdnja da je 76 posto građana Manausa bilo zaraženo koronavirusom do početka novog vala pandemije u prosincu bazira se na istraživanju uzoraka davatelja krvi objavljenom u časopisu Science. U travnju su pronađena antitijela u 4,8 posto uzoraka krvi, u svibnju čak 44,5 posto, a do lipnja je broj skočio na 52,2 posto, dok je postotak od 76 posto u rujnu bila samo procjena.

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AFP
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Dakle, brojka od 76 posto zaraženih nije bila znanstveno dokazana, a pitanje je bi taj postotak bio dovoljan za postizanje imuniteta krda koji bi štitio većinu od širenja zaraze. Autori brazilske studije ističu da je 76 posto zaraženih premalo za imunitet krda jer ljudi u Manausu žive u skučenim uvjetima, pa se virus širi puno brže nego u europskim gradovima.

2. Možda imunitet iz prvog vala već jenjava

Ako i jest Manaus stekao imunitet krda u prvom valu, moguće je da ga je u međuvremenu izgubio. Naime, znanstvenici još nisu utvrdili koliko dugo štiti imunitet od preboljenog Covida-19. Neke studije kažu od 3 do 6 mjeseci, jedna studija iznosi dokaze da imunitet traje i 8 mjeseci, s tim da su velike razlike među ispitanicima. Znanstvenici u Velikoj Britaniji analizirali su podatke medicinskih radnika redovito testiranih na Covid-19 i ustanovili da su oni koji su već bili zaraženi imali znatno manju vjerojatnost da će se ponovno zaraziti. Na 6000 ispitanika praćenih tijekom 5 mjeseci, uočili su samo 44 slučaja ponovne infekcije. Malo je vjerojatno da opadanje imuniteta objašnjava drugi val u Manausu, pišu autori u Lancetu.

3. Virus se toliko promijenio da zaobilazi stečeni imunitet

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Marcio James/AFP
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Manausom se trenutno širi soj P.1, s više mutacija u proteinu kojim se koronavirus veže uz stanice. Jedna od tih mutacija utječe na to da neutralizirajuća antitijela više ne djeluju. U Manausu je utvrđen slučaj 29-godišnjakinje koja je dvaput dobila Covid-19: prvo je zaražena osnovnim virusom Sars-CoV-2, ali drugi put novom varijantom P.1. Jedno od tumačenja je da tamo gdje je mnogo ljudi preboljelo Covid-19, normalni virus više se ne može širiti. Zato novi soj stiže i do onih koji su već preboljeli Covid, tumači epidemiologinja Emma Hodcroft za Spiegel. Istraživanja su pokazala da Pfizerovo i Modernino cjepivo djeluje i na britanski soj B1.1.7, ali nije poznato djeluju li i na brazilski P.1.

4. Nova varijanta virusa puno je zaraznija

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AFP
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Moguće je da se u Manausu sada širi znatno zarazniji soj virusa. To bi moglo utjecati i na imunitet krda: što je virus zarazniji, to više ljudi mora postati imuno kako bi se imunitet krda postigao, što znači da se virus više neće širiti. No o tome se malo zna, u prosincu je u Manausu od 31 pregledanog uzorka u njih 13 otkriven novi soj P.1.

Koji je točan odgovor na pitanje?

Vjerojatno kombinacija sva tri odgovora može objasniti drugi val širenja zaraze u Manausu, pišu znanstvenici u časopisu Lancet. Pozivaju na nove studije koje će odgovoriti na niz otvorenih pitanja.

Imunitet se vjerojatno mora trenirati ponavljanjima, slično vježbanju za test, komentirao je istraživanje epidemiolog s Harvarda Michael Mina: jedna preboljena zaraza vjerojatno nije dovoljna da bi se osigurao doživotni imunitet. Zabrinut je zbog novih mutacija i sojeva koji bi mogli biti neosjetljivi na trenutna cjepiva, pa upozorava da se odmah mora djelovati kako bi se smanjio broj novozaraženih, kako se novi sojevi ne bi mogli širiti, prenosi Spiegel. No i cjepiva se mogu prilagoditi, čovjek nije bespomoćan pred virusom.

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Grad Manaus kojeg okružuje prašuma i u kojem živi 2 milijuna stanovnika, prvi je u Brazilu bio pogođen pandemijom Covida-19. Virus se tamo brzo širio i procijenjeno je kako je do listopada prošle godine bilo zaraženo 76 posto stanovništva, što je veći broj od teorijskog praga za imunitet krda – piše The Guardian.

Manaus tada je postao simbol neobuzdanog, smrtonosnog divljanja zaraze. Svakodnevno su imali stotine mrtvih, toliko da više nije bilo mjesta u bolničkim hladnjačama, a svijet su slali fotografije s beskonačnim nizovima tek iskopanih grobova.

U siječnju 2021. godine Manaus je zadesio novi val pandemije i zdravstveni sustav je ponovno preopterećen. Ponovo su pred bolnicama hladnjače za mrtva tijela, u bolnicama se više ljudi bori za život nego u ožujku i travnju - prenosi njemački Spiegel.

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AFP
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Slučaj Manausa otvaranja pitanja: Je li imunitet jenjava ili je virus toliko mutirao da zaobilazi stečeni imunitet? Je li se u Manausu sada širi znatno zarazniji soj virusa Covid-19?

Jutarnji list piše da su znanstvenici iz Brazila, Engleske i SAD-a analizirali kako je moguće da ni s tako velikim brojem zaraženih Manausu nije pomogao imunitet krda. Zaključke su objavili u znanstvenom časopisu Lancet.

1. Nije postignut imunitet krda

Tvrdnja da je 76 posto građana Manausa bilo zaraženo koronavirusom do početka novog vala pandemije u prosincu bazira se na istraživanju uzoraka davatelja krvi objavljenom u časopisu Science. U travnju su pronađena antitijela u 4,8 posto uzoraka krvi, u svibnju čak 44,5 posto, a do lipnja je broj skočio na 52,2 posto, dok je postotak od 76 posto u rujnu bila samo procjena.

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AFP
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Dakle, brojka od 76 posto zaraženih nije bila znanstveno dokazana, a pitanje je bi taj postotak bio dovoljan za postizanje imuniteta krda koji bi štitio većinu od širenja zaraze. Autori brazilske studije ističu da je 76 posto zaraženih premalo za imunitet krda jer ljudi u Manausu žive u skučenim uvjetima, pa se virus širi puno brže nego u europskim gradovima.

2. Možda imunitet iz prvog vala već jenjava

Ako i jest Manaus stekao imunitet krda u prvom valu, moguće je da ga je u međuvremenu izgubio. Naime, znanstvenici još nisu utvrdili koliko dugo štiti imunitet od preboljenog Covida-19. Neke studije kažu od 3 do 6 mjeseci, jedna studija iznosi dokaze da imunitet traje i 8 mjeseci, s tim da su velike razlike među ispitanicima. Znanstvenici u Velikoj Britaniji analizirali su podatke medicinskih radnika redovito testiranih na Covid-19 i ustanovili da su oni koji su već bili zaraženi imali znatno manju vjerojatnost da će se ponovno zaraziti. Na 6000 ispitanika praćenih tijekom 5 mjeseci, uočili su samo 44 slučaja ponovne infekcije. Malo je vjerojatno da opadanje imuniteta objašnjava drugi val u Manausu, pišu autori u Lancetu.

3. Virus se toliko promijenio da zaobilazi stečeni imunitet

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Marcio James/AFP
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Manausom se trenutno širi soj P.1, s više mutacija u proteinu kojim se koronavirus veže uz stanice. Jedna od tih mutacija utječe na to da neutralizirajuća antitijela više ne djeluju. U Manausu je utvrđen slučaj 29-godišnjakinje koja je dvaput dobila Covid-19: prvo je zaražena osnovnim virusom Sars-CoV-2, ali drugi put novom varijantom P.1. Jedno od tumačenja je da tamo gdje je mnogo ljudi preboljelo Covid-19, normalni virus više se ne može širiti. Zato novi soj stiže i do onih koji su već preboljeli Covid, tumači epidemiologinja Emma Hodcroft za Spiegel. Istraživanja su pokazala da Pfizerovo i Modernino cjepivo djeluje i na britanski soj B1.1.7, ali nije poznato djeluju li i na brazilski P.1.

4. Nova varijanta virusa puno je zaraznija

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AFP
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Moguće je da se u Manausu sada širi znatno zarazniji soj virusa. To bi moglo utjecati i na imunitet krda: što je virus zarazniji, to više ljudi mora postati imuno kako bi se imunitet krda postigao, što znači da se virus više neće širiti. No o tome se malo zna, u prosincu je u Manausu od 31 pregledanog uzorka u njih 13 otkriven novi soj P.1.

Koji je točan odgovor na pitanje?

Vjerojatno kombinacija sva tri odgovora može objasniti drugi val širenja zaraze u Manausu, pišu znanstvenici u časopisu Lancet. Pozivaju na nove studije koje će odgovoriti na niz otvorenih pitanja.

Imunitet se vjerojatno mora trenirati ponavljanjima, slično vježbanju za test, komentirao je istraživanje epidemiolog s Harvarda Michael Mina: jedna preboljena zaraza vjerojatno nije dovoljna da bi se osigurao doživotni imunitet. Zabrinut je zbog novih mutacija i sojeva koji bi mogli biti neosjetljivi na trenutna cjepiva, pa upozorava da se odmah mora djelovati kako bi se smanjio broj novozaraženih, kako se novi sojevi ne bi mogli širiti, prenosi Spiegel. No i cjepiva se mogu prilagoditi, čovjek nije bespomoćan pred virusom.

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StoryEditorOCM
SvijetCovid-19 u brazilu

Ovo mora biti upozorenje svima: na proljeće se smatralo da su u ovom gradu stekli imunitet krda, a sada ih je zadesio još smrtonosniji val

Piše PSD, JL
3. veljače 2021. - 18:19
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Grad Manaus kojeg okružuje prašuma i u kojem živi 2 milijuna stanovnika, prvi je u Brazilu bio pogođen pandemijom Covida-19. Virus se tamo brzo širio i procijenjeno je kako je do listopada prošle godine bilo zaraženo 76 posto stanovništva, što je veći broj od teorijskog praga za imunitet krda – piše The Guardian.

Manaus tada je postao simbol neobuzdanog, smrtonosnog divljanja zaraze. Svakodnevno su imali stotine mrtvih, toliko da više nije bilo mjesta u bolničkim hladnjačama, a svijet su slali fotografije s beskonačnim nizovima tek iskopanih grobova.

U siječnju 2021. godine Manaus je zadesio novi val pandemije i zdravstveni sustav je ponovno preopterećen. Ponovo su pred bolnicama hladnjače za mrtva tijela, u bolnicama se više ljudi bori za život nego u ožujku i...

#MANAUS#BRAZIL#COVID#NOVI SOJ VIRUSA#IMUNITET KRDA
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15. svibanj 2024 21:52