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Njemačko gospodarstvo palo je u posljednjem tromjesečju 2022. za 0,2 posto, pokazali su podaci saveznog ureda za statistiku, objavljeni u ponedjeljak. Znak je to da bi najveća europska ekonomija mogla ući u recesiju, premda ako se to dogodi, ona će biti vjerojatno blaža nego što se prvotno strahovalo, slažu se analitičari.

Najveće europsko gospodarstvo službeno će ući u recesiju ako do pada bruto domaćeg proizvoda dođe i nakon prva tri mjeseca ove godine. U prethodnom tromjesečju njemačko gospodarstvo poraslo je za 0,5 posto u odnosu na ono tri mjeseca ranije.

- Zimski mjeseci pokazali su se teškim za njemačko gospodarstvo, iako ne tako teškim kao što se prvotno očekivalo. Ozbiljnog sloma njemačkog gospodarstva i dalje neće biti, ali blaga recesija još uvijek je realna - objasnio je glavni ekonomist VP banke Thomas Gitzel.

Vlada u Berlinu prošlog je tjedna predvidjela rast od 0,2 posto za 2023., dok se ranije za istu godinu predviđao pad od 0,4 posto. Ministar gospodarstva Robert Habeck ipak je upozorio na moguću recesiju te je rekao da kriza koju je Rusija izazvala svojom invazijom na Ukrajinu još uvijek nije gotova. Rasplet time i dalje ostaje donekle neizvjestan.

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Katja Lenz/Dpa Picture-alliance Via Afp
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Reuters tvrdi kako navedene brojke pokazuju da je pad osobne potrošnje kod Nijemaca glavni razlog za smanjenje BDP-a u četvrtom tromjesečju.

- Potrošačima je pala kupovna moć zbog rekordno visoke inflacije - rekao je glavni ekonomist Commerzbanka, Joerg Kraemer.

Bloomberg, u svome stilu, problem vidi u zahtjevima radnika, pa piše kako je usred rastućih zahtjeva za višim plaćama, snažna inflacija i dalje moguća. U Njemačkoj su, inače, poštanski radnici stupili u štrajk kako bi potaknuli povećanje plaća od 15 posto, a i zaposlenici u javnom sektoru također traže povišicu od najmanje deset posto.

Inflacija, potaknuta uglavnom visokim cijenama energije, usporila je drugi mjesec zaredom u prosincu, pri čemu su potrošačke cijene, usklađene s onima u EU, porasle 9,6 posto na godišnjoj razini. Međutim, analitičari koje je anketirao Reuters predviđaju da će godišnja inflacija, usklađena s ostatkom EU, ponovno stići na dvoznamenkastu razinu u siječnju. Nijemci će u utorak objaviti preliminarnu stopu inflacije za ovaj mjesec.

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Njemačko gospodarstvo palo je u posljednjem tromjesečju 2022. za 0,2 posto, pokazali su podaci saveznog ureda za statistiku, objavljeni u ponedjeljak. Znak je to da bi najveća europska ekonomija mogla ući u recesiju, premda ako se to dogodi, ona će biti vjerojatno blaža nego što se prvotno strahovalo, slažu se analitičari.

Najveće europsko gospodarstvo službeno će ući u recesiju ako do pada bruto domaćeg proizvoda dođe i nakon prva tri mjeseca ove godine. U prethodnom tromjesečju njemačko gospodarstvo poraslo je za 0,5 posto u odnosu na ono tri mjeseca ranije.

- Zimski mjeseci pokazali su se teškim za njemačko gospodarstvo, iako ne tako teškim kao što se prvotno očekivalo. Ozbiljnog sloma njemačkog gospodarstva i dalje neće biti, ali blaga recesija još uvijek je realna - objasnio je glavni ekonomist VP banke Thomas Gitzel.

Vlada u Berlinu prošlog je tjedna predvidjela rast od 0,2 posto za 2023., dok se ranije za istu godinu predviđao pad od 0,4 posto. Ministar gospodarstva Robert Habeck ipak je upozorio na moguću recesiju te je rekao da kriza koju je Rusija izazvala svojom invazijom na Ukrajinu još uvijek nije gotova. Rasplet time i dalje ostaje donekle neizvjestan.

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image
Katja Lenz/Dpa Picture-alliance Via Afp
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Reuters tvrdi kako navedene brojke pokazuju da je pad osobne potrošnje kod Nijemaca glavni razlog za smanjenje BDP-a u četvrtom tromjesečju.

- Potrošačima je pala kupovna moć zbog rekordno visoke inflacije - rekao je glavni ekonomist Commerzbanka, Joerg Kraemer.

Bloomberg, u svome stilu, problem vidi u zahtjevima radnika, pa piše kako je usred rastućih zahtjeva za višim plaćama, snažna inflacija i dalje moguća. U Njemačkoj su, inače, poštanski radnici stupili u štrajk kako bi potaknuli povećanje plaća od 15 posto, a i zaposlenici u javnom sektoru također traže povišicu od najmanje deset posto.

Inflacija, potaknuta uglavnom visokim cijenama energije, usporila je drugi mjesec zaredom u prosincu, pri čemu su potrošačke cijene, usklađene s onima u EU, porasle 9,6 posto na godišnjoj razini. Međutim, analitičari koje je anketirao Reuters predviđaju da će godišnja inflacija, usklađena s ostatkom EU, ponovno stići na dvoznamenkastu razinu u siječnju. Nijemci će u utorak objaviti preliminarnu stopu inflacije za ovaj mjesec.

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Fotostand/K. Schmitt/Dpa Picture-alliance Via Afp Katja Lenz/Dpa Picture-alliance Via Afp
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Svijetcrne prognoze

Gospodarski motor Europe očekuju turbulencije, analitičari strahuju: ‘Inflacija će se opet pojačati, a onda kreće...‘

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30. siječnja 2023. - 22:41
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Njemačko gospodarstvo palo je u posljednjem tromjesečju 2022. za 0,2 posto, pokazali su podaci saveznog ureda za statistiku, objavljeni u ponedjeljak. Znak je to da bi najveća europska ekonomija mogla ući u recesiju, premda ako se to dogodi, ona će biti vjerojatno blaža nego što se prvotno strahovalo, slažu se analitičari.

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16. svibanj 2024 13:58