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[title] => Vakula podsjetio na meterološke rekorde u rujnu, spomineo je i Ploče, a dao je i dugoročnu prognozu: ‘U prvom tjednu listopada atmosfera će se napokon stabilizirati, ali...‘
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Iako je i prvog dana u listopadu bilo mjestimične kiše, ono što je većina doživjela u rujnu rijetko se kada dogodilo, barem u znanoj povijesti. Takvi ekstremi, čak i rekordi, rijetko se gdje i kada mogu prognozirati čak i od dana do dana, a pogotovo ne u još manje pouzdanim dugoročnim prognozama, piše meteorolog Zoran Vakula za HRT.
Osim što su ponegdje izmjerene rekordne dnevne količine oborine, na nekim je meteorološkim postajama DHMZ-a i ukupna mjesečna količina oborine bila rekordna. I to ne samo za rujan, nego uopće - nikada ni jedan mjesec u godini nije bio kišovitiji od ovogodišnjeg rujna. Prema još neslužbenim podacima, koje tek trebaju provjeriti i potvrditi klimatolozi DHMZ-a, od ovoga rujna imamo nove apsolutne rekorde u dnevnoj količini oborine.
- novi apsolutni rekordi u dnevnoj količini oborine, u milimetru oborine ili litrama po četvornome metru
- Rijeka 288
- Ploče 190
- Ogulin 122
Zbog tih i drugih iznadprosječnih količina ovaj će rujan u većini Hrvatske vjerojatno dobiti klimatološke ocjene od "kišno" do "ekstremno kišno".
No, na većem dijelu srednjeg Jadrana i u unutrašnjosti Dalmacije oborine je bilo znatno manje, u granicama prosjeka, pa čak i manje. Stoga će klimatološka ocjena za rujan za Split, Hvar i Komižu vjerojatno biti "sušno".
Zanimljivo je spomenuti i kako samo u dva rujanska dana - 14. i 24. rujna ujutro - ni na jednoj meteorološkoj postaji DHMZ-a nisu izmjereni čak ni tragovi oborine. U ostalim je rujanskim danima oborine bilo barem ponegdje.
Analizira li se srednja mjesečna temperatura zraka - rujan je bio znatno manje poseban nego po količini oborine. Vrijednosti su bile uglavnom samo malo više od višegodišnjih srednjih vrijednosti u zadnjih 30 godina pa će gotovo posvuda klimatološka ocjena biti "normalan". Iznimke će biti rijetke, primjerice u Poreču, gdje će ocjena vjerojatno biti "toplo".
No, ta srednja temperatura zraka ne otkriva iznadprosječnu toplinu prve polovine rujna, tijekom koje je još bilo i vrućih dana, te osjetno hladniji drugi dio mjeseca, koje je mnoge podsjetio na listopad.
Iako je odstupanje srednje rujanske temperature zraka od prosječne bilo malo, dosadašnji dio godine i dalje je u većini Hrvatske među tri najtoplija ta razdoblja u povijesti mjerenja.
U dugoročnim prognozama na prvi pogled nema nekih velikih promjena - i dalje je povećana vjerojatnost barem prosječne temperature zraka, i srednje tromjesečne i većine mjeseci do ožujka.
Ipak, detaljnija analiza pokazuje povećanje vjerojatnosti za smanjenje dosadašnjih prognoza pozitivnog odstupanja od prosječne temperature zraka tijekom zime, posebice u siječnju i veljači u kontinentalnom dijelu Hrvatske, poručuje Zoran Vakula. Ostvari li se takav scenarij - srednja temperatura zraka prvih mjeseci 2023. godine bit će oko prosječne, što znači i česte temperaturne minuse koji će djelovati na veću potrošnju energenata, te omogućiti snježne oborine.
No, to je tek jedna od mogućnosti. Promjene su još moguće. Dugoročne prognoze nisu dovoljno pouzdane, pogotovo ne u odviše zagrijanoj atmosferi, u kojoj su nam se već dogodili kojekakvi meteorološki ekstremi.
U prvom tjednu listopada atmosfera će se napokon stabilizirati. No, već u drugom tjednu ponovno se povećava vjerojatnost česte kiše.
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[cleanTitle] => Vakula podsjetio na meterološke rekorde u rujnu, spomineo je i Ploče, a dao je i dugoročnu prognozu: ‘U prvom tjednu listopada atmosfera će se napokon stabilizirati, ali...‘
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Iako je i prvog dana u listopadu bilo mjestimične kiše, ono što je većina doživjela u rujnu rijetko se kada dogodilo, barem u znanoj povijesti. Takvi ekstremi, čak i rekordi, rijetko se gdje i kada mogu prognozirati čak i od dana do dana, a pogotovo ne u još manje pouzdanim dugoročnim prognozama, piše meteorolog Zoran Vakula za HRT.
Osim što su ponegdje izmjerene rekordne dnevne količine oborine, na nekim je meteorološkim postajama DHMZ-a i ukupna mjesečna količina oborine bila rekordna. I to ne samo za rujan, nego uopće - nikada ni jedan mjesec u godini nije bio kišovitiji od ovogodišnjeg rujna. Prema još neslužbenim podacima, koje tek trebaju provjeriti i potvrditi klimatolozi DHMZ-a, od ovoga rujna imamo nove apsolutne rekorde u dnevnoj količini oborine.
- novi apsolutni rekordi u dnevnoj količini oborine, u milimetru oborine ili litrama po četvornome metru
- Rijeka 288
- Ploče 190
- Ogulin 122
Zbog tih i drugih iznadprosječnih količina ovaj će rujan u većini Hrvatske vjerojatno dobiti klimatološke ocjene od "kišno" do "ekstremno kišno".
No, na većem dijelu srednjeg Jadrana i u unutrašnjosti Dalmacije oborine je bilo znatno manje, u granicama prosjeka, pa čak i manje. Stoga će klimatološka ocjena za rujan za Split, Hvar i Komižu vjerojatno biti "sušno".
Zanimljivo je spomenuti i kako samo u dva rujanska dana - 14. i 24. rujna ujutro - ni na jednoj meteorološkoj postaji DHMZ-a nisu izmjereni čak ni tragovi oborine. U ostalim je rujanskim danima oborine bilo barem ponegdje.
Analizira li se srednja mjesečna temperatura zraka - rujan je bio znatno manje poseban nego po količini oborine. Vrijednosti su bile uglavnom samo malo više od višegodišnjih srednjih vrijednosti u zadnjih 30 godina pa će gotovo posvuda klimatološka ocjena biti "normalan". Iznimke će biti rijetke, primjerice u Poreču, gdje će ocjena vjerojatno biti "toplo".
No, ta srednja temperatura zraka ne otkriva iznadprosječnu toplinu prve polovine rujna, tijekom koje je još bilo i vrućih dana, te osjetno hladniji drugi dio mjeseca, koje je mnoge podsjetio na listopad.
Iako je odstupanje srednje rujanske temperature zraka od prosječne bilo malo, dosadašnji dio godine i dalje je u većini Hrvatske među tri najtoplija ta razdoblja u povijesti mjerenja.
U dugoročnim prognozama na prvi pogled nema nekih velikih promjena - i dalje je povećana vjerojatnost barem prosječne temperature zraka, i srednje tromjesečne i većine mjeseci do ožujka.
Ipak, detaljnija analiza pokazuje povećanje vjerojatnosti za smanjenje dosadašnjih prognoza pozitivnog odstupanja od prosječne temperature zraka tijekom zime, posebice u siječnju i veljači u kontinentalnom dijelu Hrvatske, poručuje Zoran Vakula. Ostvari li se takav scenarij - srednja temperatura zraka prvih mjeseci 2023. godine bit će oko prosječne, što znači i česte temperaturne minuse koji će djelovati na veću potrošnju energenata, te omogućiti snježne oborine.
No, to je tek jedna od mogućnosti. Promjene su još moguće. Dugoročne prognoze nisu dovoljno pouzdane, pogotovo ne u odviše zagrijanoj atmosferi, u kojoj su nam se već dogodili kojekakvi meteorološki ekstremi.
U prvom tjednu listopada atmosfera će se napokon stabilizirati. No, već u drugom tjednu ponovno se povećava vjerojatnost česte kiše.
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19. svibanj 2024 20:02
