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Statističari sa Sveučilišta u Münchenu u Njemačkoj u novoj studiji tvrde da nisu pronašli "direktnu vezu" između pada stope zaraze koronavirusom i zatvaranja odnosno lockdowna u toj zemlji, piše The Telegraph, a prensoi Jutarnji list.
Umjesto toga, u studiji stoji da su stope zaraze počele vidljivo padati prije nego što je u studenom 2020. godine u Njemačkoj uveden nacionalni lockdown.
U studiji također piše da postoje jasni dokazi da je stopa zaraze već bila padala kada je spomenuti lockdown u prosincu 2020. i travnju 2021. godine postrožen.
Znanstvenici su se u ovoj studiji usredotočili na efektivni reprodukcijski broj (R), broj kojim se mjeri koliko ljudi prosječno zarazi neka osoba koja je nositelj virusa. Autori studije tvrde da promjenjive stope broja testiranih osoba ne mogu toliko lako iskriviti R kao što to mogu stope zaraze u tjedan dana koju je Vlada Savezne Republike Njemačke koristila za odlučivanje o uvjetima zatvaranja.
Otkriveno je, naime, da je R prije svakog uvođenja novih restrikcija bio manji od jedan, što znači da je broj zaraženih bio u padu. Tvrdi lockdown je u međuvremenu ublažen u većem dijelu Njemačke.
"Poduzete mjere mogle su imati pozitivan efekt, ali nisu jedine zaslužne za usporavanje pandemije", tvrde autori studije.
Protivnici lockdowna odmah su se uhvatili podataka iz studije pa su autori iste morali naglasiti da njihov rad nije bio politički motiviran.
"Ne možete na temelju podataka zaključiti da lockdown nije bio nužan", rekao je profesor Ralph Brinks, jedan od koautora studije. "Sve što studija pokazuje je da se početak lockdowna i pad broja zaražen ne podudaraju."
Njemačka je 2. studenog 2020. godine proglasila "lagani lockdown". Kafići i restorani tada su zatvoreni, a određene nenužne trgovine nastavile su s radom.
Potpuni lockdown proglašen je 16. prosinca 2020., a restrikcije u sklopu istog dodatno su postrožene 23. travnja 2021. godine, kada je kancelarka Njemačke Angela Merkel "povukla ručnu".
Premda nitko nije osporio podatke koji su izloženi u studiji, neki znanstvenici tvrde da je moguće da je sama rasprava o lockdownu doprinijela padu broja zaraženih.
Thorsten Lehr, profesor kliničke farmacije na Sveučilištu Saarland, rekao je da su rasprave oko lockdowna i mjera koje će se uvesti možda utjecale na promjenu ponašanja ljudi te da su se isti odlučili značajnije međusobno distancirati i izbjegavati. Nikakve dokaze koji bi tu tezu potkrijepili, doduše, nije iznio.
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Statističari sa Sveučilišta u Münchenu u Njemačkoj u novoj studiji tvrde da nisu pronašli "direktnu vezu" između pada stope zaraze koronavirusom i zatvaranja odnosno lockdowna u toj zemlji, piše The Telegraph, a prensoi Jutarnji list.
Umjesto toga, u studiji stoji da su stope zaraze počele vidljivo padati prije nego što je u studenom 2020. godine u Njemačkoj uveden nacionalni lockdown.
U studiji također piše da postoje jasni dokazi da je stopa zaraze već bila padala kada je spomenuti lockdown u prosincu 2020. i travnju 2021. godine postrožen.
Znanstvenici su se u ovoj studiji usredotočili na efektivni reprodukcijski broj (R), broj kojim se mjeri koliko ljudi prosječno zarazi neka osoba koja je nositelj virusa. Autori studije tvrde da promjenjive stope broja testiranih osoba ne mogu toliko lako iskriviti R kao što to mogu stope zaraze u tjedan dana koju je Vlada Savezne Republike Njemačke koristila za odlučivanje o uvjetima zatvaranja.
Otkriveno je, naime, da je R prije svakog uvođenja novih restrikcija bio manji od jedan, što znači da je broj zaraženih bio u padu. Tvrdi lockdown je u međuvremenu ublažen u većem dijelu Njemačke.
"Poduzete mjere mogle su imati pozitivan efekt, ali nisu jedine zaslužne za usporavanje pandemije", tvrde autori studije.
Protivnici lockdowna odmah su se uhvatili podataka iz studije pa su autori iste morali naglasiti da njihov rad nije bio politički motiviran.
"Ne možete na temelju podataka zaključiti da lockdown nije bio nužan", rekao je profesor Ralph Brinks, jedan od koautora studije. "Sve što studija pokazuje je da se početak lockdowna i pad broja zaražen ne podudaraju."
Njemačka je 2. studenog 2020. godine proglasila "lagani lockdown". Kafići i restorani tada su zatvoreni, a određene nenužne trgovine nastavile su s radom.
Potpuni lockdown proglašen je 16. prosinca 2020., a restrikcije u sklopu istog dodatno su postrožene 23. travnja 2021. godine, kada je kancelarka Njemačke Angela Merkel "povukla ručnu".
Premda nitko nije osporio podatke koji su izloženi u studiji, neki znanstvenici tvrde da je moguće da je sama rasprava o lockdownu doprinijela padu broja zaraženih.
Thorsten Lehr, profesor kliničke farmacije na Sveučilištu Saarland, rekao je da su rasprave oko lockdowna i mjera koje će se uvesti možda utjecale na promjenu ponašanja ljudi te da su se isti odlučili značajnije međusobno distancirati i izbjegavati. Nikakve dokaze koji bi tu tezu potkrijepili, doduše, nije iznio.
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12. svibanj 2024 14:20
